Forecasts of Future Oil Output

On this page are several graphs representing the predictions of future oil consumption by various stakeholders in the international debate. Which ones of these graphs are believable? Click on name of author or agency to obtain details of their respective projections of growth or decline in global oil consumption.

Hubbert, 1971
World Oil, from Energy and Power
Hubbert Output Scenario
US EIA, 2004
Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios

August 18, 2004: The US EIA has gone crazy!

From "Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert" by John H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse. This defense of an earlier forecast by EIA is quite extraordinary. What absurd future can this graph possibly depict? Can the global consumption of oil double or triple over the next couple of decades and then drop at 10% per year? What kind of world would that be? Hang onto your hats, this is going to be a wild ride!

Campbell, 1997
Production Scenarios
Campbell Output Scenario 1997
Duncan, 1997
Global Output and AMPEC Output
Duncan Output Scenario
Ivanhoe, 1997
World Oil Supply
Ivanhoe Output Scenario
Laherrere, 1997
World's Liquid Production
Laherrere Output Scenario
Chevron, 1998
Oil Demand Outlook
Chevron Output Scenario
Shell, 1997 [link to reference no longer available]
Dematerialisation Energy Demand Scenario
Shell Output Scenario
EIA, 2001
World Oil Consumption 1970-2020
EIA Output Scenario
International Energy Agency, 1998
World Energy Prospects to 2020
Campbell, 2003
The Growing Gap
the Growing Gap
Campbell, 2004
All Hydrocarbons
Scenario 2004

Often people ask about the key differences between various scenarios. The geologists and engineers illustrate the rise, peak and decline of oil. The oil companies and governments draw a rising graph, never depicting peak nor decline. One must ask, "Which approach has integrity?"

updated 2004 September 6