Figure 18
Swing share and price
Figure 19

Future Scenarios

Many different scenarios could be considered, but for illustrative purposes we are content with four, see Figure 18.

  1. High Case
  2. Demand increases at 3% a year until production reaches the world midpoint, when resource constraints cause it to decline at the then depletion rate

  3. Low Case
  4. Demand is flat, and production stays level until the world midpoint, when it declines.

  5. Base Case
  6. Demand rises at 1.5% a year until production reaches the world midpoint when it declines.

  7. Swing Case
  8. As the Base Case, save that price rises, when the swing share exceeds 30%, curb further demand increases, leading to a production plateau that lasts, not until the world midpoint, but until the swing producers reach their midpoint.

It happens that in the Base Case, the swing share rises to 30% only a year before the world midpoint. It points to a radical rise in price, due to the increasing control of the market exercised by these countries. The share under the Swing Case rises to almost 60% by the time the swing producers are forced into decline.

Next section, Political Factors

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