INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL DEPLETION Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, 2002 Organised by Uppsala University and ASPO,the Association for the Study of Peak Oil |
CLIMATE CHANGE AND OIL DEPLETION
by Rui Rosa Évora Geophysics Centre, University of Évora,
Primary energy sources have progressivelly displaced each other and
shared the supply in terms that can historically be described by a model
proposed by Cesare Marchetti as a generalization of the Fisher and
Pry law. So wood, coal, oil and natural gas have displaced or are displacing
each other, each one following a logistic evolution until a maximum share
is attainned, afterwards receeding in a symmetrically similar way, provided
there is no exaustion of the respective resource base, each one completing
its own lifecycle. On the other hand, the persistent growth of the total
enegy demand implies that the total amount of each one of the successive
primary energy sources, required to complete its lifecycle, is growing
as time lapses.
Combustion of fossil fuels always produces CO2 emissions as well as
nitrogen oxides. With the exception of natural gas, all other fuels also
produce, to a variable extent, particulate matter (aerosols) and sulfor
oxides. The permanent alteration of the chemical composition of the atmosphere
as a result of all these emissions may affect the biogeochemical balance
of the climate system. Such emissions produce recognized impacts of some
sort at local and regional levels, either temporary or permanent. Wether
actual impacts can be global and permanent is still under dispute; but
the observed steady and simultaneous increase of the CO2 atmospheric content
and of the average earth surface temperature are being considered to be
interrelated.
Evidence for the actual strain put upon the fossil energy supply is
rather stronger than the evidence for antropogenic climate changes. Rather
more attention should be drawn to the supply of alternative energy sources,
to the development of new energy carriers, to the improvement of technologies
of energy conversion and storage as weel as to the rationalization and
moderation of demand at end use, so that a severe fossil energy supply
crises might be avoided. In doing so, environmental and climatic consequences
of any kind due to the rising worlwide level of energy demand would be
reduced; and the growth of energy consumption by developing countries might
be met free of unduly constrains.
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