INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL DEPLETION
Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, 2002
Organised by Uppsala University and ASPO,the Association for the Study of Peak Oil
|A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION
by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari.
Seen from a Middle Eastern perspective, the present global oil situation can be summarised within five major and inescapable trends:
world's supergiant and giant oil fields are dying off;
Adding up these five trends, one can envision a global oil crunch at the horizon --- most probably within the present decade. Unfortunately, however, the general public will not heed such a rational vision. And, even if it did, it would be loath to respond to the implied threat. In its defence, it should be said that many actors are constantly and consistently reassuring it: the press (even parts of the specialised press), most politicians, some international institutions, a couple of major oil companies and naturally OPEC.
But this can only last until petrol stations post 'empty', natural gas supplies are suddenly shunted and, eventually, the lights go off.