X2M: from eXporters to iMporters
Natural Gas
Global Warming
These are X2M countries -- those which have transitioned from eXporters to iMporters. (For consistency, these data are mostly denominated in Exajoules -- 1 Ej = 163.5 million barrels = 0.45 Million barrels/day in 1 year -- with the vertical scale automatic, so please look at the numbers on the right for scale.)

Many of these countries conform to the "Export Land Model" that was defined and elaborated by Dallas Geologist Jeff Brown a number of years ago.

The X2M club of countries is growing...

1945. The United States of America was an early member of this dubious club, with its crossover point to the left of this set of graphs. So I found another graph that shows how things were earlier.

1993. Next in line was China. The Chinese juggernaut started when they figured out how to exploit their offshore oil and sell it for a profit in the 1980s. Why do you suppose Nixon went to China back in the day?

1996. Peru had a brief joyride.

2003. Indonesia got kicked out of OPEC when they couldn't hold up their end of the bargain!

2006. The United Kingdom almost split a few years later. (Scotland has most of the remaining oil. They thought it might be better to abandon the sinking ship of state.)

2010. Vietnam. Wasn't there a war over there about oil, once upon a time?

2010. Egypt. So you thought Arab Spring was about the assertion of democracy? Guess again.

2011. Malaysia. What will happen there in the years to come?

BP doesn't publish net export data for a few key X2M countries, but with the help of other sources, we can see that these are some of the most impacted by post-peak decline in oil production.

2011. Syria. With the combination of Peak Oil and Climate Change, Syria is the X2M country hardest hit.
For Syria, peak oil occurred in 1996. The crisis erupted in 2011 when oil consuption exceeded production. More details can be found here: Syria peak oil weakened governments finances ahead of Arab Spring in 2011 and here: The "Syrian Sickness": what crude oil gives, crude oil will take away.

2013. Argentina is now the second country in South America to join the club.

20??. Lybia has crossed the line. Here is one country where instability may have preceded the X2M cross-over point.

2013. Yemen.
More details can be found here.

20??. México seems to be following the trend. When will they be joining the club? (They aren't the only ones. Stay tuned... There's more to come.)

Mazama Science's Oil Export Databrowser provided most of the data and graphics used here. Thanks, Jonathan!

updated 2016-01-06
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