World Undiscovered Assessment Results Summary

World Undiscovered Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the minimum assessed field size. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect positive correlation. For the total of non-U.S. undiscovered petroleum, the resources in oil fields and in gas fields were aggregated by a separate Monte Carlo procedure from that of total resources; thus these lines do not add perfectly. Shading indicates not applicable]

Code Undiscovered Resources

and Field Prob. Oil (MMBO) Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL)

Type (0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Total: Non-U.S. Undiscovered Petroleum

Oil Fields 1.00 333,881 607,458 1,107,468 648,628 525,104 1,029,753 2,039,030 1,122,365 25,606 53,366 112,825 59,355

Gas Fields 1,787,043 3,297,448 6,188,050 3,547,123 69,145 135,388 266,202 147,662

Total 1.00 333,881 607,458 1,107,468 648,628 2,298,554 4,333,377 8,173,731 4,669,488 94,842 189,105 378,368 207,017

U.S. Undiscovered Petroleum (from USGS 1995 National Assessment and MMS 1996 Outer Continental Shelf Assessment)

Total 1.00 60,500 94,700 75,600 392,600 697,600 526,900 6,500 9,900 8,000

Grand Total: World Undiscovered Petroleum

Total 1.00 394,381 1,202,168 724,228 2,691,154 8,871,331 5,196,388 101,342 388,268 215,017

[U.S. data from Gautier, D.L., Dolton, G.L., Takahashi, K.I., and Varnes, K.L., eds, 1996, 1995 National assessment of United States oil and gas resources--Results, methodology, and supporting data: U.S. Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-30, release 2, one CD-ROM, and from Minerals Management Service, 1996, An assessment of the undiscovered hydrocarbon potential of the Nation's outer continental shelf: Minerals Management Service OCS Report, MMS 96-0034, 40 pages]

1 Former Soviet Union

Oil Fields 1.00 35,601 107,036 225,654 115,985 72,152 244,123 570,495 272,806 4,016 14,234 35,833 16,336

Gas Fields 357,012 1,230,163 2,676,245 1,338,455 9,476 34,374 81,427 38,470

Total 1.00 35,601 107,036 225,654 115,985 429,164 1,474,286 3,246,740 1,611,262 13,491 48,608 117,260 54,806

2 Middle East and North Africa

Oil Fields 1.00 73,286 215,651 432,178 229,882 90,484 295,235 678,796 329,248 3,947 13,571 33,943 15,595

Gas Fields 334,887 982,973 1,929,100 1,040,684 20,029 61,249 128,731 66,152

Total 1.00 73,286 215,651 432,178 229,882 425,371 1,278,208 2,607,896 1,369,933 23,976 74,820 162,673 81,747

3 Asia Pacific

Oil Fields 1.00 8,726 27,392 58,653 29,780 17,495 60,806 144,713 68,314 922 3,423 8,876 3,971

Gas Fields 91,573 289,545 601,331 311,025 3,101 10,361 23,278 11,407

Total 1.00 8,726 27,392 58,653 29,780 109,068 350,350 746,044 379,339 4,023 13,784 32,153 15,379

4 Europe

Oil Fields 1.00 6,339 20,091 45,407 22,292 8,328 31,217 80,413 36,134 525 2,121 5,894 2,519

Gas Fields 36,378 238,842 652,999 276,231 1,059 9,205 28,340 11,148

Total 1.00 6,339 20,091 45,407 22,292 44,706 270,060 733,412 312,365 1,584 11,326 34,233 13,667

5 North America (non-U.S.)

Oil Fields 1.00 6,802 70,837 157,491 70,491 11,754 85,536 213,925 91,926 656 4,911 13,505 5,515

Gas Fields 8,690 60,598 139,674 62,574 241 2,158 5,652 2,338

Total 1.00 6,802 70,837 157,491 70,491 20,444 146,134 353,599 154,499 897 7,069 19,157 7,853

6 Central and South America

Oil Fields 1.00 20,090 92,658 230,727 105,106 30,352 147,403 404,102 173,881 1,502 7,675 22,416 9,276

Gas Fields 65,816 273,591 683,420 313,309 2,059 9,168 25,372 10,919

Total 1.00 20,090 92,658 230,727 105,106 96,168 420,994 1,087,521 487,190 3,561 16,843 47,788 20,196

7 Sub-Saharan Africa and Antarctica

Oil Fields 1.00 26,783 68,999 124,447 71,512 47,393 130,775 268,891 140,685 1,763 5,180 11,533 5,722

Gas Fields 36,081 89,369 170,545 94,604 2,015 4,762 9,031 5,044

Total 1.00 26,783 68,999 124,447 71,512 83,474 220,144 439,436 235,290 3,778 9,942 20,564 10,766

8 South Asia

Oil Fields 1.00 1,032 3,330 6,957 3,580 2,354 8,345 19,888 9,370 90 357 967 420

Gas Fields 28,164 98,823 228,759 110,240 516 1,873 4,878 2,184

Total 1.00 1,032 3,330 6,957 3,580 30,518 107,168 248,647 119,610 606 2,230 5,845 2,604

World Undiscovered Assessment Results Summary
[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the minimum assessed field size. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect positive correlation. For the total of non-U.S. undiscovered petroleum, the resources in oil fields and in gas fields were aggregated by a separate Monte Carlo procedure from that of total resources; thus these lines do not add perfectly. Shading indicates not applicable]
Code		Undiscovered Resources
and Field	Prob.	Oil (MMBO)				Gas (BCFG)				NGL (MMBNGL)
Type	(0-1)	F95	F50	F5	Mean	F95	F50	F5	Mean	F95	F50	F5	Mean
	Total: Non-U.S. Undiscovered Petroleum
Oil Fields	1.00	333,881	607,458	1,107,468	648,628	525,104	1,029,753	2,039,030	1,122,365	25,606	53,366	112,825	59,355
Gas Fields	1.00					1,787,043	3,297,448	6,188,050	3,547,123	69,145	135,388	266,202	147,662
Total	1.00	333,881	607,458	1,107,468	648,628	2,298,554	4,333,377	8,173,731	4,669,488	94,842	189,105	378,368	207,017
	U.S. Undiscovered Petroleum (from USGS 1995 National Assessment and MMS 1996 Outer Continental Shelf Assessment)
Total	1.00	60,500		94,700	75,600	392,600		697,600	526,900	6,500		9,900	8,000
	Grand Total: World Undiscovered Petroleum
Total	1.00	394,381		1,202,168	724,228	2,691,154		8,871,331	5,196,388	101,342		388,268	215,017
[U.S. data from Gautier, D.L., Dolton, G.L., Takahashi, K.I., and Varnes, K.L., eds, 1996, 1995 National assessment of United States oil and gas resources--Results, methodology, and supporting data: U.S. Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-30, release 2, one CD-ROM, and from Minerals Management Service, 1996, An assessment of the undiscovered hydrocarbon potential of the Nation's outer continental shelf: Minerals Management Service OCS Report, MMS 96-0034, 40 pages]
1	Former Soviet Union
Oil Fields	1.00	35,601	107,036	225,654	115,985	72,152	244,123	570,495	272,806	4,016	14,234	35,833	16,336
Gas Fields	1.00					357,012	1,230,163	2,676,245	1,338,455	9,476	34,374	81,427	38,470
Total	1.00	35,601	107,036	225,654	115,985	429,164	1,474,286	3,246,740	1,611,262	13,491	48,608	117,260	54,806
2	Middle East and North Africa
Oil Fields	1.00	73,286	215,651	432,178	229,882	90,484	295,235	678,796	329,248	3,947	13,571	33,943	15,595
Gas Fields	1.00					334,887	982,973	1,929,100	1,040,684	20,029	61,249	128,731	66,152
Total	1.00	73,286	215,651	432,178	229,882	425,371	1,278,208	2,607,896	1,369,933	23,976	74,820	162,673	81,747
3	Asia Pacific
Oil Fields	1.00	8,726	27,392	58,653	29,780	17,495	60,806	144,713	68,314	922	3,423	8,876	3,971
Gas Fields	1.00					91,573	289,545	601,331	311,025	3,101	10,361	23,278	11,407
Total	1.00	8,726	27,392	58,653	29,780	109,068	350,350	746,044	379,339	4,023	13,784	32,153	15,379
4	Europe
Oil Fields	1.00	6,339	20,091	45,407	22,292	8,328	31,217	80,413	36,134	525	2,121	5,894	2,519
Gas Fields	1.00					36,378	238,842	652,999	276,231	1,059	9,205	28,340	11,148
Total	1.00	6,339	20,091	45,407	22,292	44,706	270,060	733,412	312,365	1,584	11,326	34,233	13,667
5	North America (non-U.S.)
Oil Fields	1.00	6,802	70,837	157,491	70,491	11,754	85,536	213,925	91,926	656	4,911	13,505	5,515
Gas Fields	1.00					8,690	60,598	139,674	62,574	241	2,158	5,652	2,338
Total	1.00	6,802	70,837	157,491	70,491	20,444	146,134	353,599	154,499	897	7,069	19,157	7,853
6	Central and South America
Oil Fields	1.00	20,090	92,658	230,727	105,106	30,352	147,403	404,102	173,881	1,502	7,675	22,416	9,276
Gas Fields	1.00					65,816	273,591	683,420	313,309	2,059	9,168	25,372	10,919
Total	1.00	20,090	92,658	230,727	105,106	96,168	420,994	1,087,521	487,190	3,561	16,843	47,788	20,196
7	Sub-Saharan Africa and Antarctica
Oil Fields	1.00	26,783	68,999	124,447	71,512	47,393	130,775	268,891	140,685	1,763	5,180	11,533	5,722
Gas Fields	1.00					36,081	89,369	170,545	94,604	2,015	4,762	9,031	5,044
Total	1.00	26,783	68,999	124,447	71,512	83,474	220,144	439,436	235,290	3,778	9,942	20,564	10,766
8	South Asia
Oil Fields	1.00	1,032	3,330	6,957	3,580	2,354	8,345	19,888	9,370	90	357	967	420
Gas Fields	1.00					28,164	98,823	228,759	110,240	516	1,873	4,878	2,184
Total	1.00	1,032	3,330	6,957	3,580	30,518	107,168	248,647	119,610	606	2,230	5,845	2,604