STL2STM2@Book@@%TTTTTĦ@C_StringPrint_SetupUpTPrintxxHHL Xg(HH(dh StartupSound_TabLISTBook_Prefs *Act  ,,TTTList    Scene   TT Drawing_Model   Draw_Specs  JJ  diagram_struct_arrayDependentsdrmd ScriptPad_List Manuscript RPlay@@TTTTU}U}Play_PrefsPP??T2 R VVJTTModel$ ETTTTT`U}8TSubscript_Set_List Subscript_SetTPArray&1 Dim_Name_1 Simulation_Model7Run_Specsjj@@?A>Timeentity_struct_array4Aentity_struct2s @qQ@PGz?@ohi@P =q@ohi@P =q@qQ@PGz@qQ@qQ????@PGz?@qQ Q_Test USQ_Fcst_US {Gb}int16_array(double_arraytoken_type_arraytoken_type  run_handle_array!!Draw_Index"" Poster_Info##queue$$Units%%billion barrels  billion barrels2f !@~\N@ `kz@ h3@r[T@]x@"jF5@64@c}9@Z6;&@N @6@Ջ@"C,@RLfQn@K۠&@TD@DmH@s@>BZc@A [@2^@`@:ŗ@X@[BF@7Kƨ@`8@u׈@:э%@]@Nv@J6P&@( b@!D(M@2m@s@qp@Go*ZF@LC@M@qiC@@@@5 '0@K@ |Z@uO7@К:ь@2 @ >@mQ.Ƽ@;@q@#-#@GG"@69䣃@ 7"@dҲL@꼔pd@m+j@۸<ϖ@L_@ U.r@ &V@ z$LD@ v @ ]Sn@HF@+Jw@XdE$@C,zx@af@Q_@`A7@F@64@v+ I@&?:^5?|?x77p_NA is a function of TIME (Years). Units are Gb/year." #$%<2c <K @Khϕ??@Khϕ@Khϕ@Khϕ???@-ШM?8 @Khϕ YTP_Fcst_Cn==IF(TIME < 2041) THEN(0) ELSE(EUR_Fcst_Cn - Q2004_Cn) {Gb}0             !At the end of each run, YTP_Fcst_Cn estimates the 50% probability (F50) that Canada's future oil production will be this amount (less than the F90 amount, of course)." #$%)2s @NMCk@ =p =?@C3jϬ?.H@C3jϬ?.H@NMCk@ =p =@NMCk@NMCk????@ =p =? @NMCk Q_Test MxQ_Fcst_Mx {Gb}2/ 2!" #$%)2f !?Up @?Y+?~??Y+?~??Up R?????kDR?np  p_Test_Mx""p_Data_Mx - RampT_Mx {Gb/year}/     ! &?np?oTK:?Ms?ygt?g?i}?IQ ?3zN?Ăi?ʼnr ?D?ƴ,Q?ǣ?ȇTw[?΂@4n?K3?CV?X6F?eV?z$L?u?ѷX?񆢱pO?wkP?.h]k@xY<X&@xu@xQ@x?>@y=@yAN!R@yi{dZ@y@yN;@y՞쿱Z@yWXd@zDg8|@z8Stj}@zW55Q_NA is a function of TIME (in years). Units are Gb." #$%)2E 'U@}#1&w??@}#1&w@}#1&w@}#1&wR???@h3sш?@}#1&w EUR_Fcst_NA((EUR_Fcst_Cn + EUR_Fcst_Mx + EUR_Fcst_US       !SSEUR_Fcst_NA is assumed to be the 50% EUR forecast for North America. Units are Gb." #$%)2c A?????? YrsPast2040F_Mx 0 {Years}  !Analogous to YrsPast2040F_Cn." #$%2c!@=p >@?@=p >@=p >@=p >E????-j? @=p > RampT_MxRAMP(0.07,2012) {Gb/year} ( ? Q   !FFRampT_Mx is a line that begins in 2012 and increases at 0.07 Gb/year." #$%<2c OL@U??@U@U@U???@6z@ROv_خ@R^@S33333@Tt@UFS&@V&fffff@W@X )@Y U=@Zhr!@[+jg@\sPH@]&@^Q@^N;5@_ܼj~@`ahr!@`ّhr!@aO$@aƾ (@b=Xy=@b@@c,wkP@c6z@d"Ʌoj@dH@enO@e|@ev_ح@fSݗ,@f$@g%)^ @giDg8@ge+b@hL_@h{J#9@ibM@ik@iC^@j ?@jy@j`A9@k)S@k}lC@kS@l#@ltQ @lİ ě@m$0@ma+ I@mzH@m =p@nC?|h@nM@n5?|@o\(@o`\(@o I^@oM@p9XbN@p5Q@pU =q@ptlD@pn@pm@pϏ\(@p왙@q bM@q$E@q@C%@q[@qu(\@qvȴ9@qn@q/v@q =p@qQ@r$/@r&x@r19X`Euler's method of integration is used with DT = 1 year. Each run of a model goes from 1960 to 2041. The initial value of Q_Fcst_US (66.52 Gb) is the sum of US oil production from 1859 thru 1959." #$%)2c w@B@B??@B@B@B@B???@> ҉@B? @B Q2004_Mx 36.2 {Gb}-   @B !" #$%)2E 'Z@fZÕ!??@fZÕ!@fZÕ!@fZÕ!???@NW?@fZÕ! YTP_Fcst_NA((YTP_Fcst_Cn + YTP_Fcst_Mx + YTP_Fcst_US       !" #$%)2c < @=6d??@=6d@=6d@=6d???@2"? @=6d YTP_Fcst_Mx==IF(TIME < 2041) THEN(0) ELSE(EUR_Fcst_Mx - Q2004_Mx) {Gb} 0             !Analogous to YTP_Fcst_Cn." #$%)2s 9@N*?Q?@E P{@ lC@E P{@ lC@N*?Q@N*@N*?????Q?8@N* Q_Test CnQ_Fcst_Cn {Gb}7  7!" #$%)2f !;?8 ?:S&???,?x5??,?x5?8 ?:S&R?%[[?9䣃*?????F~olR?:S&8?9䣃* p_Test_Cn""p_Data_Cn - RampT_Cn {Gb/year}%   %   ! &?:S&?"??+?tSMj?"`B?}H˒?ף?9.?OQC?ނ"?4m8?zNzVC?\$_[?th?GE84?Ck&?%ם ? sG?2P]?nwpy?䚀If{_?_o ?:)y?fWx-?nwpz?*cO?'/W?Fg?\(\?ޓՑ?T6? [6??U5Q?l oTL?,?eں?:S|?5~g,?j+C? sG?D|0?p?^?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?VE?uy(?1zO?̷?;D=F?E?P%?Z[(?d̢?nwpy?yP?QX'?獎[?9? ?GG$?㶄[.?28?m3 C?)8           6    !EUR_Test_Cn equals Q_Test_Cn at yearend 2040 plus (YrsPast2040T_Cn * p_Test_Cn) for the years from 2041 to the cessation of production. Details: "T" stands for Test. YrsPast2040T_Cn equals the length (in years) of an artifactual rectangle whose height equals p_Test_Cn in 2040. The area of the rectangle is assumed to be the 75% forecast ("F75") of cumulative oil production from 2041 onward. No attempt is made to depict the shape of the F75 oil production curve beyond 2040." #$%)2c M@A@A??@A@A@A@A<???@@A?8!@AYrsPast2040F_Cn35 {Years} #!==Equation EUR_Fcst_Cn illustrates the use of YrsPast2040F_Cn." #$%2g ??????"Mexico!" #$%2c [@P@P??@P@P@P@P<???@P?8#@P LastYrDataBP2004 {Year};=< !==Year 2004 is the last year of oil data published in BP 2005." #$%2g??????$Region 1: North America!" #$%2c -?333333C?8 ?:S&??lC?7KƧ?lC?7KƧ?8 ?:S&R?8 ?8 3?????,R?:S&?8%?8  p_Data_CnTIME;hh@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@@@@ @$@(@,@0@4@8@<@@@D@H@L@Phh?:S&?"??+?tSMj?"`B?}H˒?ף?9.?OQC?ނ"?4m8?zNzVC?\$_[?th?GE84?Ck&?%ם ? sG?2P]?nwpy?䚀If{_?_o ?:)y?fWx-?nwpz?*cO?'/W?Fg?\(\?ޓՑ?T6? [6??U5Q?l oTL?,?eں?:S|?5~g,?j+C? sG?D|0?p?^?8   ! &?:S&?"??+?tSMj?"`B?}H˒?ף?9.?OQC?ނ"?4m8?zNzVC?\$_[?th?GE84?Ck&?%ם ? sG?2P]?nwpy?䚀If{_?_o ?:)y?fWx-?nwpz?*cO?'/W?Fg?\(\?ޓՑ?T6? [6??U5Q?l oTL?,?eں?:S|?5~g,?j+C? sG?D|0?p?^?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 44The original data in million barrels per day (Mb/d) from were retrived from www.bp.com, then converted to billion barrels per year (Gb/y), and finally pasted into this Graphical Function. Note well that STELLA retains the oil production for the most recent year for all future years. See figure "p_Data_Cn"." #$%<2 f GE @~\N?(@r$/ EUR_Test_USPPIF(TIME < 2041) THEN(0) ELSE(Q_Test_US + (YrsPast2040T_US * p_Test_US)) {Gb}>,8               !))EUR_Test_US is analogous to EUR_Test_Cn." #$%)2c <k @?XOO??@?XOO@?XOO@?XOO????8)@?XOO YTP_Test_Cn==IF(TIME < 2041) THEN(0) ELSE(EUR_Test_Cn - Q2004_Cn) {Gb} ?0             !At the end of each run, YTP_Test_Cn estimates the 75% probability ("F75") that Canada's future oil production will be this amount." #$%)2g8??????*Canada!" #$%2c ]@&333333@&333333??@&333333@&333333@&333333@&333333???@&333333?+@&333333 R\p2004_US11.1 {Years}<   @&33 3333!Analogous to R\p2004_Cn." #$%2c <~ @Q~"??@Q~"@Q~"@Q~"????,@Q~" YTP_Test_US==IF(TIME < 2041) THEN(0) ELSE(EUR_Test_US - Q2004_US) {Gb}(?0          (   !Analogous to YTP_Test_Cn." #$%)2c < @8gS??@8gS@8gS@8gS???? -@8gS YTP_Test_Mx==IF(TIME < 2041) THEN(0) ELSE(EUR_Test_Mx - Q2004_Mx) {Gb}/?0          /   !Analogous to YTP_Test_Cn." #$%)2c @-@-??@-@-@-@-???@-?8.@- R\p2004_Cn14.9 {Years};   @- !R\p2004_Cn is a ratio and its value (14.9) is from BP 2005. "R" (actually "R2004") means Canada's "proven reserves" at yearend 2004 (Gb). "p2004" was Canada's oil production in 2004 (Gb/year). Thus the units of R/p2004_Cn are "Years"." #$%2c N@NMCk??@NMCk@NMCk@NMCk(???@>ңx ? /@NMCk EUR_Test_MxOOIF(TIME < 2041)THEN(0) ELSE(Q_Test_Mx + (YrsPast2040T_Mx * p_Test_Mx)) {Gb}:>-8           :    !))EUR_Test_Mx is analogous to EUR_Test_Cn." #$%)2c @%333333@%333333??@%333333@%333333@%333333@%333333???@%333333? 0@%333333 R\p2004_Mx10.6 {Years}=   @%33 3333!Analogous to R\p2004_Cn." #$%2c @0@0??@0@0@0@0???@0?81@0 R2004_Cn 16.8 {Gb}5   @0 !We start with the "proven oil reserves" as published by BP 2005, but we know this number is a gross estimates. Hence it's up to the modeler to deviate from it in making his or her forecast." #$%)2s @PZo?R&@ =p =??@PZo?R&@ =p =R@PZo?R&@PZo?R&???R@ =p =? 2@PZo?R&@PZo?R& Q_Fcst Mx 3.28 {Gb} 9   @ =p  =! &@ =p =@ ʁ@ r(@ ﲪ@!laQ@ )^@ łU@,QG@0)^@g@0H@@76f@܇Tu@lA@n6F@bHG@wp@ݬ@s5IM@c1ڢ@k@ GN@"{@$@'HQ@)C >l@+cF]c@-fm@/ϿT@00j+@1#@2R@4&Ԁu@59:@6^V?@7R~R@8RiY_@9Ԇ-@;({@=@@@@<쿱@AiBo@Bg@BɅoi@C}ce@D.?ײ@D,{ Z@E*@F@@Fv @Gպ@HN@4n@H@If@JO@J@K+C@L'X6@L׈@M7m@MԪ@N#v ׈@N B@N2P]@OBO"}@OOX@OԽ Ri@PB0@P!iu @P6%@PFc^t@PR*@PZo?R&@PZo?R&@PZo?R&@PZo?R&@PZo?R&@PZo?R&@PZo?R&" #$%)2c @=ffffff@=ffffff??@=ffffff@=ffffff@=ffffff@=ffffff???@=ffffff?3@=ffffff R2004_US 29.4 {Gb}5   @=ff ffff!Analogous to R2004_Cn." #$%)2c @-@-??@-@-@-@-???@-? 4@- R2004_Mx 14.8 {Gb}5   @- !Analogous to R2004_Cn." #$%)2E@N@N??@N@N@N@N???@N?5@N R2004_NAR2004_Cn + R2004_Mx + R2004_US143 1 4  3  !" #$%)2c @@??@@@@6???@?86@YrsPast2040T_Cn 5 {Years}  !77Equation EUR_Test_Cn shows the use of YrsPast2040T_Cn." #$%2s @P<'jA?Q??@P<'jA?QR@P<'jA@P<'jA???R?Q?87@P<'jA@P<'jA Q_Fcst Cn 1.37 {Gb}8   ? Q! &?Q?sQ?)-@Q֍@ߏG0@:@ZLB@ \@ ) D@9Y @:hA@[k@ͳ|@93]$D@*/@6;$@٩T!@!6*\|@"`x@#M@$=@$n@&Ր@'XU'(b@(6P%@)Y@*7@,0y+@-K۠@. ǎi@07`]x@0mq@1 Eb@2Eh@2h@3Xe,@4k@5`@6@P@7(CP@8Ov`@9@:j@@;Sn@;wd:@= 1Q@>#6z@?Cy3@@)_Ë@@ѷX@A9^@AfWx@BRZ1@Br\=x@Ct (@DfB@D [7@E$vj@Em@F@}Vl@F٩T"@GX#̍@G@HjZ@H&x@IuJw@IY@Jsd9@J<ϖ@Kc^5?}@KT@LBzG@L@Mn.@Mtav@M/^"@N0e @N4X@N76i@O7s@OLA@O1z@PBY@P<'jA" #$%)2Xf Q?333333?3rS?:S&???3rS?:S&R?Z1'?Z1'???? ^$R?:S& 88?Z1'?Z1' p_Fcst_CnTIME 7@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@@@@ @$@(@,@0@4@8@<@@@D@H@L@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@?:S&?"??+?tSMj?"`B?}H˒?ף?9.?OQC?ނ"?4m8?zNzVC?\$_[?th?GE84?Ck&?%ם ? sG?2P]?nwpy?䚀If{_?_o ?:)y?fWx-?nwpz?*cO?'/W?Fg?\(\?ޓՑ?T6? [6??U5Q?l oTL?,?eں?:S|?5~g,?j+C? sG?D|0?p?^?8 ? I^5?ﲪ?hb?i`?q?'?$t?8q`?_Ë?lC?nCy?Y5;?{J#9?CV?1&y?O;dZ?ohۋ?vȴ9?bM?$/?lC?lD?lC?/v?S?&x?Լj~#?ЃnP?1&x?Q.9, 'a P8<RxZ ()Canada*+, 'a vDc@>H C6()*p Forecast US+66 l"kPTdTT` graph_type//bb T\Tl&TpRTx@@,k@@+''United States oil production (Gb/year)curve_type_array00Jcurve_type11JT&RTt@Eh.&jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuwxz|}W\afjoty~ #(-27<@EJOTY^cglqv{"  \ [5'+66  ?iP "-ppp "UzTpT` table_type22ddTT!TT@?R@2,k_ +""p_Fcst, Q_Fcst, RampT for Mexico.table_var_type_array33D table_var_type44"T9RT.9! &?np?oTK:?Ms?ygt?g?i}?IQ ?3zN?Ăi?ʼnr ?D?ƴ,Q?ǣ?ȇTw[?΂@4n?K3?CV?X6F?eV?z$L?u?ѷX?񆢱pO?wkP?.h]k'?$t?8q`?_Ë?lC?nCy?Y5;?{J#9?CV?1&y?O;dZ?ohۋ?vȴ9?bM?$/?lC?lD?lC?/v?S?&x?Լj~#?ЃnP?1&x?Q4"T2RU|.2!SET55 T" p   JJ?   h z'a gk9kaoci()United States*+, ,'a sPn 9h()*+, ,'a dmmq ()*+, ,'a f} B}g(:)*(mem+, ,'aRYP /-Q bQ()*+slider_type66hh T(?.(Log_Condn77Log_Page88Play_Where99" " , ,'a cm@mmmw ()*+, ,'a cI0/^S()*+, ,'a aO#@ WJ(()*+, ,'a d*z@  ()*+, ,'a d*8#@ !3()*+, ,'a a@ p ()*+, ,'a c ' ()*+, ,'a a! @ @E ()*+, ,'a gj":j pb()Mexico*+, ,'a a>-@ .2C()*+, ,'a aME+@ .@@0R()*+, ,'a c @mm ()*+, ,'aD?8@ *  'W()* p Start Cn+66  Yp d0P?y TPTT` /bb TLTdThRUp@@,k@@+Pp_Start for Canada0J1JT;RTl@`?.;|vrmilgiaZVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'aR#  G6|()*+6hh T4?.4789" " , ,'a aw @ N()*+, ,'aR  ,()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a cG( @mmm=\k3F()*+, ,'a c>em @mmm$GH3()*+, ,'a aZ(-?@ 4@/(D_()*+, ,'a dE@()*+, ,'a E @ 'ap()*+, ,'a c4D2( @ n 0(*NN()*+, ,'aD@ 0μ=()*p Q NA+66i P , 8p p UpTT` 2ddUpUpUp@?R>2,k> +pp & Q for North America.3D4"T RT. !4"TRU}.!5 T" ,, ,'a g x$; Ypa()Region 1: North America*+, ,'a sPn 9h+()*+, ,'a d mmq ()*+, ,'a f} B 6*(:)*(g+, ,'a c @d i0()*+, ,'a c" @!< ()*+, ,'aD@ ""Ģp";()*p NA+66P>MQP >MUq<T"T` /bb Uq4UqX2Uq\RUqd@@,k@@+33Oil production & forecast for North America (Gb/y)0J1JT RUq`@A . xtqljf]TNIAA==CJNJB=73.-('../79579::745<997569;<<=>?@BDFHKNRVZ^bglpuzW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"" ,, ,'a&D5@ CY# (S()* p All NA+66>x PGa0 ]p UqT#T` 2ddUqpUqUq@?R52,kkp +p All for North America.34"T&RT,.&!4"T8RT(.8!4"T9RT.9!%4"T RT. !5 T"# ,, ,'a a3@8k @ s,/$.()*+, ,'a aM4 @ x%H"()*+, ,'aR  />&/()*+6hh T5?.5789" " , ,'a c' '()*+, ,'a sd@(n B(M|()*+, ,'aR*  CĀ)=()*+6hh T3?.3789" " , ,'a a" @ y*'()*+, ,'a aL 9H@ 53@+4MQ()*+, ,'aR 8 !6,()*+6hh T1?.1789" " , ,'a tp8@ p -"h()*""Test Canada p & R\p & Min Fcst+, ,'aRkP .ct()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'aD+zK8@ / cI()* RampT Cn+66PUrLT/T` /bb UrHUrXUrhRUrp@@,k@@+ RampT_Cn0J1JTRUrl@i.~xqke_YSLF@W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"/ ,, ,'a a* 8;@ d0~()*+, ,'a&D@ 1 ()* Q All NA+66@=0Q<ìÇ=0UrT1T` 2ddUr|UrUr@?R<2,k? +Q All for North America.34"TRU|.![4"T7RU|.7!4"T2RU|.2!4"TRU}.!5 T"1 ,, ,'a D8@ *p2e()*p Start & p Test Cn+66 >#0pb`0pUrT2T` /bbUrUrUrRUr@@,k@@+p_Start & p_Test for Canada0 1JT;RUr@`.;|vrmilgiaZVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV1JTRUr@`.|vrmilgiaZVVVVVVVVVVVZ^aeimquy|W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"2 ,, ,'a a?\1F@ 4@/3:,Ka()*+, ,'a cE!  @mm4;_\G%?R()*+, ,'a c' @ 5(g()*+, ,'a a_ 2I@ o~6N7()*+, ,'a awLD8Ko@ O*,7rGt()*+, ,'a g *< bX8nj`()Canada*+, ,'a sn 9B()*+, ,'a dG;8mmq :>P()*+, ,'a f} ;G:I0>(O)*(b+, ,'a tz8@ z <r()*Forecast Canada+, ,'aD8@ V= +V()* RampF US+66>/  +@  Us T=T` /bb UsUs4Us8RUs@@@,k@@+ RampF_US0J1JT@RUs<@Y.@{xtpliea^W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"= ,, ,'a aR8;@ )>M()*+, ,'a a> 4<@ o~? A$()*+, ,'a c+ @$`8@!EBI$()*+, ,'a cFx&@IA,KPR()*+, ,'a a98@"@ @B'()*+, ,'a c3% C L}()*+, ,'a csD/@@ěTDY.}\7l()*+, ,'a f&@EVF(N)*(w+, ,'a abE&>@ F C+()*+, ,'a a] 4&>@ G!Cb()*+, ,'a t@ a Hi()*Test United States+, ,'a a;8@$@ @I)()*+, ,'a d J()*+, ,'a cw  @mmmK_7`()*+, ,'a c1 @mmL'FNOP`()*+, ,'a c,!@mmmM6N()*+, ,'a a-M8L0@ N(5()*+, ,'a a8L)@ O.()*+, ,'a a8L)@ P.()*+, ,'aRMP8 QE#Vi()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a aFosA 4*E@ eR@%Kt()*+, ,'aD  @ \S *()* p Start Mx+66 >Y h0E  h0Ut TST` /bb UtUtUtRUt$@@,k@@+7p_Start for Mexico0J1JT=RUt @Y.=vyxy{{zwqqqqtlgciea`XWWWWWWWWWWWW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"S ,, ,'a t;N 87N= T10/VE()*11Note: We use the Model and Equation layers only.+, ,'a E=M @@@U38Wq()*+, ,'a t6@ h Vp()*Forecast United States+, ,'''a Ep@ Yf()*+, ,'a E>$ @Z4X(()*+, ,'a c# @-u[{(f()*+, ,'aR ?P ko}\R)()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a c+@C ]()*+, ,'a D0@ z #8^#N!()*p Q US+66 ]-ŐUthT^T` /bbUtdUtt%UtxRUt@@,k@@+S&&p_Forecast & Q_Forecast for the US0 1JT&RUt|@Eh@333333.&jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuwxz|}1JTRUt?@t.}zxvtrpnljhfdb`^][YXVTSQPNMKJHGEDCA@?=<;:976543210/.-,,W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"^ ,, ,'aD2g@ z P_%XPw()*p Q US+66 = Q 0  UtT_T` 2ddUtUtUt@?R?2,k>[ +bp_Fcst, Q_Fcst, & RampF for US.3D4"T&RT,.&!4"TRU|.![5 T"_ ,, ,'a a8L8K|@ s,/`3w()*+, ,'a,D@ 0?a ()* p All NA+66"(0? `UtTaT` /bbUtUtUtRUt@@,k@@+qp All for North America (Gb/y)0(1JT&RUt@A @.&~zyvogb_Y[[^dimkfhgggfcbgjltwux{~~1JT8RUt@A @.81JT9RUt@A @.91JT RUt@A . xtqljf]TNIAA==CJNJB=73.-('../79579::745<997569;<<=>?@BDFHKNRVZ^bglpuzW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"a ,, ,'aD8@ :@hb=()*p Q Cn+66[?0 BJ ?0UtTbT` 2ddUtUtUt@?R=2,k9 +p_Fcst and Q_Fcst for Canada.3D4"T8RT(.8!4"T7RU|.7!5 T"b ,, ,'a D   @ )Pc):()*p Start & p Test Mx+66  ;UtTcT` /bbUtUuUu RUu@@,k@@+p_Start & p_Test for Mexico0 1JT=RUu@Y.=vyxy{{zwqqqqtlgciea`XWWWWWWWWWWW1JTRUu@Y.vyxy{{zwqqqqtlgciea`XWWWWWWWWW^emt{W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"c ,, ,''a d  @ FeO()*+, ,'a c[ @  f ()*+, ,'a a5@ Ng ()*+, ,'a&De@ ?4nh N~()* p S T F US+668 `'  `Uu4ThT` /bbUu0Uu@'UuDRUuT@@,k@@+((p_Start, p_Test & p_Forecast for the US01JT<RUuH@E@333333.<ifc_]YPF@<577;BINLEGGGFFA@FJMW[X[`cddeimmnoruuuuuuuuuuuu1JTRUuL@E@333333.ifc_]YPF@<577;BINLEGGGFFA@FJMW[X[`cddeimmnoruwy{}1JT&RUuP@E.&ifc_]YPF@<577;BINLEGGGFFA@FJMW[X[`cddeimmnoruvxy{}~[`ekpuz  %+05:?DJOTY^dinsx~"h ,, ,'aD@  i ()* p Start US+66 <ˠÇ@d`Ç@Uu`TiT` /bb Uu\UulUupRUux@@,k@@+p_Start for the United States0J1JT<RUut@Eh.<jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuuuuuuuuuuuuW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"i ,, ,'a D@ ,j>()*p Start & p Test US+66 Cg OUuTjT` /bbUuUuUuRUu@@,k@@+p_Start & p_Test for the US0 1JT<RUu@Eh.<jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuuuuuuuuuuuu1JTRUu@Eh.jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuwz|~W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"j ,, ,'a c) @؎fBk.l$()*+, ,'a aw<D8k@ s,/lrA()*+, ,'a dz0m()*+, ,'aR 8 , xn5()*+6hh T)?.)789" " , ,'aR P8 Ho$()*+6hh T!?.!789" " , ,'a DG\   p :Hep()* p Q Mx +, ,'a t @ 4 q <()* Test Mexico+, ,'aRI 8 ( r\()*+6hh T ?. 789" " , ,'a,D@ 6:ts ()* Q All NA+66">`` -p V@`UuTsT` /bbUuUuUuRUv@@,k@@+Q All for North America (Gb)0(1JTRUu?ffffff@~.~}|{zyxwwvutssrqpponnmllkjj1JT7RUu?ffffff@~.71JT2RUv?ffffff@~.21JTRUv?ffffff.}{yvtrpnkigeca_]ZXVTRPOMKIGFDCA@>=<;:87665432W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz"s ,, ,''a tB @ M uU()*Forecast Mexico+, ,'a&D [ @ O)%v B)t()* p S T F Mx+66Y0:P_UvTvT` /bbUvUv(#Uv,RUv<@@,k@@+$$p_Start, p_Test & p_Fcst for Mexico01JT=RUv0@ZP.=x{z|}}|ystssvniekgcbZYYYYYYYYYYY1JTRUv4@ZP.x{z|}}|ystssvniekgcbZYYYYYYYYY`gov}1JT9RUv8@ZP@.9x{z|}}|ystssvniekgcbZYZZZZZZ[[\]_aeiqxZ_dioty~ "(-27<AFKQV[`ejouz"v ,, ,'a c/@ 0(Hw()*+, ,'a E< @=x2V()*+, ,'aR?P; CuyR#()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a f<z m( )*(d+, ,'aRawP C{Yj()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a&D8@ \n | ()* p S T F Cn+665(# ((oP(UvxT|T` /bbUvtUv#UvRUv@@,k@@+&$$p_Start, p_Test & p_Fcst for Canada01JT;RUv@`.;zvplpjlc\XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX1JTRUv@`.zvplpjlc\XXXXXXXXXXX\`dhlptx|1JT8RUv@`.8zvplpjlc\Xab`][XWWXYZ[\]_`cehlosx|\aglqv| $)/49>DINSY^chnsx}"| ,, ,'a a;C8_@ )}6d()*+, ,'a c , @mBmC~g()*+, ,'a c   h&()*+, ,'a a~@ [()*+, ,'a c @%()*+, ,'a a<H~}@ [7C()*+, ,'aRN   g0a()*+6hh T,?.,789" " , ,'a cz- @`\()*+, ,'a a[8m@ (h ()*+, ,'a aX< u@ S7z()*+, ,'aR  )ip ()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a aw @ }()*+, ,'aRH  p[()*+6hh T-?.-789" " , ,''aDH @ ) ;f()* p Fcst Mx+66{FB fpŒBUvTT` /bb UvUw)UwRUw @@,k@@+U**Mexican production data & forecast (Gb/y)0J1JT9RUw@\.9|illmtoonjddddg^XU[WRQIGIIIIIIJJKLNPTYaiqyW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'a cQ7U/ @ceptepGkA+6()*+, ,'a s7@  P()*+, ,'a dR8@2@@I[()*+, ,'a f8@/HyʐRO(Z)*(U+, ,'aD0@ ,0 #N()* p Fcst US+66 MpŠ`%®@Š`Uw<TT` /bb Uw8UwH)UwLRUwT@@,k@@+j**US oil production: data & forecast (Gb/y)0J1JT&RUwP@E2.&heb^\XOE?<576:BIMKEGFFFEA@EJLVZWZ_bccdhllmmqsuwxz{}~UZ_dhmrw| !&+05:>CHMRW\`ejoty~" ,, ,'a sj2@ SG()*+, ,'a d @:10()*+, ,'a f 9@EQER\|?(T)*(T+, ,'a t  n v ()*You are viewing the Model layer for Region 1: North America. We focus on the Model layer of North America. The Equation layer includes some detailed documentation. STELLA can be learned from the many resources at iseesystems.com. We begin with Canada (below).+, ,''a cA]. @&+_()*+, ,'a fg; *` }(2)*(9+, ,'aD!A8@ $+ +?W()* p Fcst Cn+66V`=p=pUwTT` /bb UwUw(UwRUw@@,k@@+))Canada oil forecast: 2005-2040 (Gb/year)0J1JT8RUw@eh?333333.8tbjztxxuvoillkf^XPKE?D<?4+&020,)&$%&'()*,.036:>CIOTY^cgknqtwy|W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'a a F8b ~Ag()*+, ,'aRc  =[l.()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a c#[  @ =()*+, ,'a c'0 @ΜA()*+, ,'a f=  O Je()*(O`O+, ,'a c'' CA*()*+, ,'a c1@j()*+, ,'a ca3@Iy()*+, ,'a c[4@Bt()*+, ,'a E5 @#()*+, ,'aRbP >A0Z,kr()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a aF{M7 2HK()*+, ,'aRfP ,[^2ox()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'aRPP8 I-Y`HY()*+6hh T ?. 789" " , ,'aRSP8 I-Y`K\()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'aRzP 7UrB()*+6hh T/?./789" " , ,'aRh P 7U`qe()*+6hh T ?. 789" " , ,'aR"PP c+()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'a c()62U()*+, ,'a a( 8@+ #0%()*+, ,'aRP8 <e  P()*+6hh T6?.6789" " , ,'a cS|:S9T]()*+, ,'a aSs @Q L;Xx()*+, ,'aR+EPV 4#X4()*+6hh T:?.:789" " , ,'aRu|P Cfm~()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,''a cJC8 X8d>()*+, ,'a a@ { ()*+, ,'a a z@ {()*+, ,'a a]z ()*+, ,'a af z ()*+, ,'a ay' @ Me()*+, ,'a a  !()*+, ,'a a  $()*+, ,'aD8  ()* p Data Cn+66tpm" p>PmUy\TT` /bb UyXUyp UytRUy|@@,k@@+ p_Data_Cn0J1JT%RUyx@`.%yuplojlc\XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXY^chmrw} $).38=BHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'a EK>  :w4n()*+, ,'a csx w()*+, ,'a E??x%()*+, ,'aRP -s()*+6hh T>?.>789" " , ,'aRvPe 0()*+6hh T?.789" " , ,'aR K p *()*+6hh T??.?789" " , ,'aDL 7 5c()* p Data US+66}ʠ ʠUyTT` /bb UyUy UyRUy@@,k@@+ p_Data_US0J1JT RUy@Eh. jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'a t+ +*a #2i ()*The Four Guiding Rules for North America: EUR_Fcst_NA = Q2004_NA + YTP_Fcst_NA EUR_Test_NA = Q2004_NA + YTP_Test_NA EUR_Fcst_NA > EUR_Test_NA YTP_Fcst_NA > YTP_Test_NA > R2004_NA Achieved by the Graphic-Heuristic Method.+, ,'a c @ !+()*+, ,'a c@ @1|(()*+, ,'a abE@  ()*+, ,'a akE @  ()*+, ,'aD Q  X ;)g()* p DataMx+669 +HC +UzTT` /bb UyUz .UzRUz@@,k@@+//p_Data_Mx (1960-2004; held constant 2005-2040)0J1JTRUz@Y.vyxy{{zwqqqqtlgciea`XWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'a t7F8@ 7FN />V()*BP Data Canada+, ,'a t/@ /F  'N()* BP Data US+, ,'a t @ Qh Ip()*BP Data Mexico+, ,'a d8@ @()*+, ,'''a t'8@ 'q y()*Heuristics Cn+, ,'a t}8@ v ~()*Heuristics Cn+, ,''a t@  ()*Heuristics US+, ,'a t~@ ~ v()*Heuristics US+, ,'a t @  ()*Heuristics Mx+, ,'a t{ @ { s()*Heuristics Mx+, ,''a D@ :;()*p Q NA+66c0o0UzpTT` /bbUzlUz|UzRUz@@,k@@+8p_NA and Q_NA Time domain0 1JT RUz@A . xtqljf]TNIAA==CJNJB=73.-('../79579::745<997569;<<=>?@BDFHKNRVZ^bglpuz1JTRUz?ffffff.}{yvtrpnkigeca_]ZXVTRPOMKIGFDCA@>=<;:87665432W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'a D"8@ _US and@()*p Q Cn+66?`UzTT` /bbUzUzUzRUz@@,k@@+Gp_Fcst_Cn & Q_Fcst_Cn0 1JT8RUz@`.8|vrmilgiaZV^_^[XVTUVWXXY[\^`behlpuy}1JT7RUz@DDDDDD@V.7~|ywurpnligedb`^][YXVUTRW\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,'a DG @ h:e()*p Q Mx+660@PpPUzTT` /bbUzUzUzRUz@@,k@@+Vp_Fcst & Q_Fcst for Mexico0 1JT9RUz@`?.9oZ]]^e``_[TTTSWMGBJE@>535555556779:=BHQZclu~1JT2RUz@|W|W@Q.2|xtplhd`\XTPLHEA>;8631/-,*)(''&&&&&&&W\afkpuy~ !&+05:>CHMRW\afkpuz" ,, ,drmd+++++&+j++U+p+q++P++7++++S+b++66?=Ұ P=UzT T` /bb UzUz2U{RU{@@,k@@P+e33US oil production data from 1960 to 2004 (Gb/year)0J1JT )RU{@Eh. jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuW`ir{ %.7@IR[dmv~ )2;CLU^gpy#," +66TX=TU{ T T` /bb UzU{U{RU{$@@,k@@+op_R\p for the United States0J1JT<RU{ @Eh.<jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuuuuuuuuuuuuW\afjoty~ #(-27<@EJOTY^cglqv{" +66 * P  *U{(TT` /bbU{U{4U{8RU{D@@,k@@+yp_R\p & p_Test for the US0 1JT<RU{<@Eh.<jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuuuuuuuuuuuu1JTRU{@@Eh.jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuwz|~W\afjoty~ #(-27<@EJOTY^cglqv{" +66g@ `   `U{HTT` /bb U{,U{T+U{XRU{`@@,k@@+,,Oil production data and forecast for the US0J1JT RU{\@A . xtqljf]TNIAA==CJNJB=73.-('../79579::745<997569;<<=>?@BDFHKNRVZ^bglpuzW\afjoty~ #(-27<@EJOTY^cglqv{" +66&@ă?@U{dTT` /bbU{LU{p!U{tRU{@@,k@@+""p_R\p, p_Test & p_Fcst for the US01JT<RU{x@Eh.<jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuuuuuuuuuuuu1JTRU{|@Eh.jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuwz|~1JT&RU{@Eh.&jgd_]ZQGA=688;CJNLFHHGGFBAGKNW[Y\`cdeeinnoosuwxz|}W\afjoty~ #(-27<@EJOTY^cglqv{" +66@>1 @´>1 U{TT` 2ddU{hU{*U{@?R<d,kY +++p_Cn, p_US, p_Mx & North America (Gb/year).34"T8RT(.8!4"T&RT,.&!4"T9RT.9!%4"T RT. !5 T" +66R= ݰ,p= U{TT` /bb U{U{ U{RU{@@,k@@+!!Mexican oil production (Gb/year)0J1JT9RU{@\.9|illmtoonjddddg^XU[WRQIGIIIIIIJJKLNPTYaiqyW\afjoty~ #(-27<@EJOTY^cglqv{" +66Uz &` zU{TT` /bb U{U{!U{RU{@@,k@@+""Canadian oil production (Gb/year)0J1JT8RU{@`.8|vrmilgiaZV^_^[XVTUVWXXY[\^`behlpuy}W\afjoty~ #(-27<@EJOTY^cglqv{" +++++8+G+V+++, ''a C"@  l((d)*+, 'a C@  '()*+, 'a D8@Cv ~Y()*US oil data 1960 to 2004+e, ''a D<2@o 'Q()* p R\p US+o, 'a D?@o/i()*p R\p & p Test US+y, 'a D@CQ/()*p Forecast N America+, 'a D[?@o N,yR()* p All US+, 'a D@@f the se2N()*p All+, 'a DCπyW()*p Forecast Mexico+, 'a D 6()*p Forecast Canada+, drmd#$%<2f Q?333333?Up ???Up R???? >R?np 9 p_Fcst_MxTIME 2@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@@@@ @$@(@,@0@4@8@<@@@D@H@L@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@?np?oTK:?Ms?ygt?g?i}?IQ ?3zN?Ăi?ʼnr ?D?ƴ,Q?ǣ?ȇTw[?΂@4n?K3?CV?X6F?eV?z$L?u?ѷX?񆢱pO?wkP?.h]k'?$t?8q`?_Ë?lC?nCy?Y5;?{J#9?CV?1&y?O;dZ?ohۋ?vȴ9?bM?$/?lC?lD?lC?/v?S?&x?Լj~#?ЃnP?1&x?Q  !%p_Fcst_Mx (above) contains Mexico's historic oil production data from 1960 thru 2004 and the author's forecast from 2005 thru 2040." #$%<2c ?????? :YrsPast2040T_Mx 0 {Years}/ !Analogous to YrsPast2040T_Cn." #$%2 f L ?8 ???8 R???R?:S&8; p_Start_CnMMIF(TIME <= (LastYrDataBP + R\p2004_Cn)) THEN(p_Data_Cn) ELSE(0) {Gb\year}#.%0   # .     %   ! &?:S&?"??+?tSMj?"`B?}H˒?ף?9.?OQC?ނ"?4m8?zNzVC?\$_[?th?GE84?Ck&?%ם ? sG?2P]?nwpy?䚀If{_?_o ?:)y?fWx-?nwpz?*cO?'/W?Fg?\(\?ޓՑ?T6? [6??U5Q?l oTL?,?eں?:S|?5~g,?j+C? sG?D|0?p?^?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 ?8 "p_Start_Cn" is where we begin. Historic data appear from 1960 thru 2004 followed by a "three-sided rectangle" with an area equal to Canada's "proven reserves" (16.8 Gb)." #$%2 f Lz @~\N<@333333?@~\N<R???R@As< p_Start_USMMIF(TIME <= (LastYrDataBP + R\p2004_US)) THEN(p_Data_US) ELSE(0) {Gb\year}#+ 0   # +        ! &@As@Ft@ae@ :S&@ Q@ R䎊@ l"h @ Ϫ͟@E@u@~\N<@I'RTa@TzG@_ح@҈@ 9#w@ m8Y@ @@ @@ a|Q@ S&@ @@ C]@r@7@ حV@ k~(@ {J#9@ vȴ9X@ _o@ hۋq@ e@ rGE9@~"@L@8)@%F L0@dZ1@ ҉@zG@d7@DS@S@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/@$/Analogous to "p_Start_Cn"." #$%2 f L ?Up @??Up R???R?np = p_Start_MxMMIF(TIME <= (LastYrDataBP + R\p2004_Mx)) THEN(p_Data_Mx) ELSE(0) {Gb\year}#00   # 0        ! &?np?oTK:?Ms?ygt?g?i}?IQ ?3zN?Ăi?ʼnr ?D?ƴ,Q?ǣ?ȇTw[?΂@4n?K3?CV?X6F?eV?z$L?u?ѷX?񆢱pO?wkP?.h]k??@yK}At>@yK}At>@yK}At>D????>@yK}At> EUR_Test_NA((EUR_Test_Cn + EUR_Test_Mx + EUR_Test_US /(  /  (  !EEEUR_Test_NA is assumed to be the 75% EUR forecast for North America." #$%)2E '@_ [l7\??@_ [l7\@_ [l7\@_ [l7\?????@_ [l7\ YTP_Test_NA((YTP_Test_Cn + YTP_Test_Mx + YTP_Test_US)-, ) -  ,  !" #$%)2c?O;dZ???O;dZR?O;dZ?O;dZx???R?@?O;dZ RampF_USRAMP(0.036,2004)& ( ?n O;   ! &?nO;?nO;?S?nO;? =p ?˥S? ěT?nO;?Լj~"? =p ?XbM?ۥS?E? ěT?GzG?nO;?㕁$/?j~"?S? =p ?1&x?XbM?~"?S??E?vȴ? ěT?9XbM?GzG?"`A?nO;? I^5?$/?(\)?j~"?O;dZyy"F" stands for Forecast and RAMP is a builtin function. The line RampF_US begins in 2004 and increases at 0.036 Gb/year." #$%<  ,Model_Template::AliasRecord;;Pathname<< QP ,,OTU}U}U}U}U~     U}U} \  _ JJ  drmd  R Panel== U}U} \ =f JJ  drmd     U}U~ \  m JJ  drmd U}U}U~ \Sector_Specs>>5T Sense_Setup??bbU~ U~$OPU~00F L(select_struct_array@@allow_struct_arrayAA`allow_structBB7B2BB1B4B3BBBB.B0B+B#B!BBPicture_arrayCCPictureDD HH , Geneva.+ $Setup #1($BThu, Jul 28, 2005 3:39 AM(?Input Variables(URun #)iR\p US(k1)_1960({2)_1982(3)_20040 ** Entity_Controller_MapEE.8" E.9"  Section_ListFFFont_MapGGFont_Map_Record_ArrayHHFont_Map_RecordIIGenevaIGenevaFWindow_ListJJTR)  Model_WindowKK 1+{Pad_WindowLL >*+K 1+{L 4 +yL r.+L o)+oL ^0x+L m3+L XD+L <(+L o*+L ^0x+eL @`Kr+L d\+bL 0F\7+pL ,w|+L -V~+L vN:+L hT+L a){+L ;'+L e2+8L [Cu/+L yK7+qL 9%+L {B.+7L {G3+L +L ZHt4+VL FTc+L P<+L X7r#+L vC/+UL +jL +SL y]b+L fR+PL 5!+L +GL GT+&L dOI+TImportExportMM"ImEx