Roger Bezdek
Natural Gas
Global Warming

Fuel Efficiency and the Economy: Input-output analysis shows how proposed changes to automotive fuel-efficiency standards would propagate through the economy, by Roger H. Bezdek and Robert M. Wendling, in American Scientist [2005 March April]

"... [S]ome good news: Fuel efficiency can go hand in hand with job growth."

Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management ("The Hirsch Report"), by Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Roger Bezdek, MISI, Robert Wendling, MISI for the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the US Department of Energy [2005 February]

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

When Will Oil Peak? Sometime soon petroleum production will begin declining. Can we be prepared?, by Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Roger Bezdek, MISI, Robert Wendling, MISI, in Energy Magazine [2005 Winter]

"World oil production peaking will require physical mitigation if we are to avoid severe, long-lasting, worldwide economic damage. In the following, we identify available options for oil peaking mitigation, and we estimate the time required for effective implementation. Our approach is approximate and transparent to facilitate understanding."

The Case Against Gas Dependence: Greater reliance on gas-fired power implies serious economic, technological, and national security risks, by Roger Bezdek and Robert M. Wendling, in Public Utilities Fortnightly [2004 April]

"Over the past two decades, the United States has, by default, come to rely on an “In Gas We Trust” energy policy. Natural gas increasingly has been seen as the preferred fuel for all applications, nowhere more than in the electric generation sector. However, the greatly increased use of natural gas forecast for the electricity sector may not be economically or technically feasible, and it does not represent optimal or desired energy policy. Rather, a more rational energy policy would be to use coal and nuclear power as the sources of new electricity generation and to use natural gas for the applications for which it is best suited — space heating and industrial use."

A Half Century of Long-Range Energy Forecasts: Errors Made, Lessons Learned, and Implications for Forecasting, by Roger Bezdek and Robert M. Wendling, Journal of Fusion Energy [2002 December]

"This paper assesses the major U.S. long-range energy forecasting studies conducted over the past half century, identifies the errors made and lessons learned in energy forecasting, and discusses the implications for current and future attempts to accurately forecast energy consumption, production, and prices. Over the past several decades, long-range energy forecasting has been extremely difficult and the accuracy of the major forecasts has, in retrospect, often been found wanting."
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